Sales Commentary
February sales on TRREB followed the trend from January. At 9097 sales, this was 17% lower than for January of 2021. Another way to look at these numbers is that the sales jump from January to February due to seasonality was 61% in 2022 compared to 58% in 2021. In other words, we are tracking in line to last year. Yes, sales are lower, but so are new listings for the month and active listings compared to 2021. Last year was a record year for sales and this year we are on pace for 100,000 sales which would place it as the third largest sales year.
Getting more specific about individual markets, the ‘416’ region was down by 14% versus 20% in the ‘905’ region. Within the ‘416’ region, detached sales were only 11% lower versus 21% in ‘905’. The flight to the suburbs may be over. The second observation is that condo sales were just 14% lower which suggests that affordability is also becoming a factor. Year-to-date in 2022, condo apartment sales were 32.5% of the total market and overall condo sales were at 40.3%. For the same period in 2021, the numbers were 30.5% and 38.4%
Looking at the Downtown/Humber Bay market, sales were off by 18% from February of last year. An easy explanation is that for the same period, ‘active’ listings were down by 19%. The supply of listings is now less than one month.
Besides affordability, the high-end condo market was also growing faster than the overall market. For the first two months of 2022, 48 condos over two million dollars were sold versus 30 in 2021.
GRAPH 1: Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
THE ONE-BEDROOM MARKET
While it may be easier to find a one bedroom to lease, it is very difficult to find a one bedroom to buy. To prove our point, we looked at sales and availability in one of the biggest condo towers downtown. College Park (the north tower) at 763 Bay is 51 storeys high and consists of 655 units. Currently there are ZERO one-bedroom units for sale. Over the last two years, there were 42 sales.
Here are the price increases for a one bedroom of with the same layout and for a one bedroom plus den. The interesting trend is that the one bedroom plus den increased faster. Our guess is because of the work-from-home availability.
763 BAY STREET
1 Bedroom VS 1 Bedroom+Den
Rental Commentary
The supply of condos available to lease Downtown and Humber Bay was over 2,000 units by March. This availability is about the same as last month. The number of condos leased in February was also similar to January at 1451 units. Hence demand and supply remain unchanged with just under a two-month supply of inventory.
With rent controls in buildings built/registered after November 2018 now lifted, expect tenants in those buildings to see increases of at least 5%. Those units built/registered before those dates are subject to increases of 1.2%. Remember all rents were frozen in 2021.